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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly serves as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the largest improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or just the most shocking upset.

But the current field is profoundly different. The pool of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference winners declining and longtime strugglers rising together. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's competing with five other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a typical season!

Where his case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still